|
|
2007. QGroup: Spring 2007.
|
|
|
|
Aboody, D., Lehavy, R. & Trueman, B., 2007. Earnings Announcement Returns of Past Stock Market Winners,.
Keywords: FinancialRatios
|
|
|
|
Afolabi, M.O. & Olude, O., 2007. Predicting Stock Prices Using a Hybrid Kohonen Self Oragnizing Map (SOM). Hawaii.
Abstract: A challenging and daunting task for financial investors is determining stock market timing—when to buy, sell and the future price of a stock. This challenge is due to the complexity of the stock market. New methods have emerged that increase the accuracy of stock prediction. Examples of these methods are Fuzzy logic, Neural Network and hybridized methods such as hybrid Kohonen Self Organizing Map (SOM), Adaptive Neuro–Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) etc. This paper presents a number of methods used to predict the stock price of the day. These methods are Backpropagation, Kohonen SOM, and a hybrid Kohonen SOM. The results show that the difference in error of the hybrid Kohonen SOM is significantly reduced compared to the other methods used. Hence, the results suggest that the hybrid Kohonen SOM is a better predictor compared to Kohonen SOM and Backpropagation.
Keywords: Clustering
|
|
|
|
Ahmed, N.K., Atiya, A.F., Gayar, N.E. & Shishiny, H.E., 2007. An Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting.
|
|
|
|
Arnold, T., Bertus, M. & Godbey, J., 2007. A Simplified Approach to Understanding the Kalman Filter Technique.
Abstract: The Kalman Filter is a time series estimation algorithm that is applied extensively in the field of engineering and recently (relative to engineering) in the field of finance and economics. However, presentations of the technique are somewhat intimidating despite the relative ease of generating the algorithm. This paper presents the Kalman Filter in a simplified manner and produces an example of an application of the algorithm in Excel. This scaled down version of the Kalman filter can be introduced in the (advanced) undergraduate classroom as well as the graduate classroom.
|
|
|
|
Bell, R.M. & Koren, Y., 2007. Improved Neighborhood-based Collaborative Filtering. San Jose, USA.
Abstract: Recommender systems based on collaborative filtering predict user preferences for products or services by learning past user-item relationships. A predominant approach to collaborative filtering is neighborhood based (“k-nearest neighbors“), where a user-itempreference rating is interpolated from ratings of similar items and/or users. In this work, we enhance the neighborhood-based approach leading to a substantial improvement of prediction accuracy, without a meaningful increase in running time. First, we remove certain so-called “global effects” from the data tomake the different ratings more comparable, thereby improving interpolation accuracy. Second, we show how to simultaneously derive interpolation weights for all nearest neighbors. Unlike previous approaches where each interpolation weight is computed separately, simultaneous interpolation accounts for the many interactions between neighbors by globally solving a suitable optimization problem, also leading to improved accuracy. Our method is very fast in practice, generating a prediction in about 0.2 milliseconds. Importantly, it does not require training many parameters or a lengthy preprocessing, making it very practical for large scale applications. The method was evaluated on the Netflix dataset. We could process the 2.8 million queries of the Qualifying set in 10 minutes yielding a RMSE of 0.9086. Moreover, when an extensive training is allowed, such as SVD-factorization at the preprocessing stage, our method can produce results with a RMSE of 0.8982.
|
|
|
|
Bell, R.M. & Koren, Y., 2007. Scalable Collaborative Filtering with Jointly Derived Neighborhood Interpolation Weights.
Abstract: Recommender systems based on collaborative filtering predict user preferences for products or services by learning past user-item relationships. A predominant approach to collaborative filtering is neighborhood based (“k-nearest neighbors”), where a user-item preference rating is interpolated from ratings of similar items and/or users. We enhance the neighborhood-based approach leading to substantial improvement of prediction accuracy, without a meaningful increase in running time. First, we remove certain so-called “global effects” from the data to make the ratings more comparable, thereby improving interpolation accuracy. Second, we show how to simultaneously derive interpolation weights for all nearest neighbors, unlike previous approaches where each weight is computed separately. By globally solving a suitable optimization problem, this simultaneous interpolation accounts for the many interactions between neighbors leading to improved accuracy. Our method is very fast in practice, generating a prediction in about 0.2 milliseconds. Importantly, it does not require training many parameters or a lengthy preprocessing, making it very practical for large scale applications. Finally, we show how to apply these methods to the perceivably much slower user-oriented approach. To this end, we suggest a novel scheme for low dimensional embedding of the users. We evaluate these methods on the Netflix dataset, where they deliver significantly better results than the commercial Netflix Cinematch recommender system.
|
|
|
|
Bell, R.M., Koren, Y. & Volinsky, C., 2007. Modeling Relationships at Multiple Scales to Improve Accuracy of Large Recommender Systems. San Jose, USA.
Abstract: The collaborative filtering approach to recommender systems predicts user preferences for products or services by learning past useritem relationships. In this work, we propose novel algorithms for predicting user ratings of items by integrating complementary models that focus on patterns at different scales. At a local scale, we use a neighborhood-based technique that infers ratings from observed ratings by similar users or of similar items. Unlike previous local approaches, our method is based on a formal model that accounts for interactions within the neighborhood, leading to improved estimation quality. At a higher, regional, scale, we use SVD-like matrix factorization for recovering the major structural patterns in the user-item rating matrix. Unlike previous approaches that require imputations in order to fill in the unknown matrix entries, our new iterative algorithm avoids imputation. Because the models involve estimation of millions, or even billions, of parameters, shrinkage of estimated values to account for sampling variability proves crucial to prevent overfitting. Both the local and the regional approaches, and in particular their combination through a unifying model, compare favorably with other approaches and deliver substantially better results than the commercial Netflix Cinematch recommender system on a large publicly available data set.
Keywords: LargeScaleLearning
|
|